An old idea springs anew as a chorus of influential voices predicts that AI may trigger crises of vast magnitude
In a preface to his book Capitalism and Freedom, the American economist Milton Friedman famously observed that a crisis can propel once-fringe ideas into the political mainstream.
“Only a crisis – actual or perceived – produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around,” he wrote. The job of intellectuals, thinktanks and economists, he argued, is to refine the quality of these ambient ideas, so that good ones are ready when disaster strikes.
A chorus of influential voices is now predicting that AI may trigger crises of vast magnitude. Bill Gates has declared that AI will advance so rapidly that within a decade, humans will not be needed “for most things”. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has warned that the technology could cause widespread unemployment within one to five years, eliminating many positions in law, tech, finance and other white-collar professions. Even if these predictions are wrong, investors who bet heavily on the technology may conclude that AI is a bubble, and this in itself could cause a recession and widespread job loss.
Whether a crisis of mass AI-related job loss turns out to be actual or perceived, one policy idea that is attracting growing attention and support could directly mitigate this problem: a job guarantee.
In its most ambitious form, such a program would ensure that anyone who wants work is guaranteed a meaningful, decently paid job. By creating a public option for employment, its supporters argue, a job guarantee could protect millions of people from the financial and psychological damage of joblessness and mobilize a vast labor force to tackle urgent societal problems, from infrastructure and climate adaptation to elder care and childcare.
Adwuma ho awerɛhyɛmu adwene no wɔ abakɔsɛm tenten, sɛ nea ɛyɛ nea ɛsɛ sɛ wɔde di dwuma ne nhyehyɛe ankasa. Afe 1948 Wiase Nyinaa Onipa Hokwan Kyerɛmu ho asɛm 23 ka sɛ: “Obiara wɔ hokwan sɛ obeyɛ adwuma, sɛ ɔbɛpaw adwuma a ɔpɛ kwa, sɛ obenya adwuma tebea a eye na ɛfata ne banbɔ a etia adwumayɛ a wonni.” Great Depression a ɛbae wɔ 1930mu no, Franklin D Roosevelt kyekyeree Works Progress Administration (WPA), a ɛde Amerikafo ɔpepepem dii adwuma wɔ ɔmanfo dwumadi akɛse a ɛyɛ nwonwa a ɛkyekyeree akwan, abɔntene atifi akwan, nsuguamu, agokan mmeae ne pii nkabom. Nkyɛe yi, France, India ne Argentina ka aman a wɔde adwuma ho awerɛhyɛmu nhyehyɛe ahorow aba no ho.
Ɛwom sɛ adwuma ho awerɛhyɛmu ne universal basic income (UBI) taa de bɔ mu de, nanso wiase nyinaa nhwehwɛmu bi a wɔayɛ nnansa yi kyerɛɛ sɛ nkurɔfo foa adwuma ho awerɛhyɛmu so sen UBI. Democratic strategist David Shor nhwehwɛmu a ɔyɛɛ wɔ Amerikafo ho no nso kyerɛ saa nkyekyɛmu koro no ara , a ɔboa adwuma a wotua ho ka pa yiye a wɔbɛbɔ so sen sika a wɔde bɛboa nkurɔfo tee. Eyi yɛ ntease, sɛnea venture capitalist ne civic activist Nick Hanauer kae, efisɛ “adwuma kyerɛ ade pii sen sika wɔ nnipa mmusuakuw mu. Ɛkyerɛ abusuabɔ ne anuonyam ne hokwan ne mmoaboa.”
Algernon Austin, a ɔyɛ director ma race ne sikasɛm atɛntenenee wɔ Center for Economic and Policy Research no, penee so sɛ: "Adwuma ho awaregyeɛ no ye sen UBI kɛseɛ ɛfiri sɛ adwuma yɛ ade a ɛboro sika a wonya so. Sɛ wowɔ adwuma a, wonya adwuma mu osuahu na wonya nimdeɛ na wonya nkitahodi netwɔk."
Calculating the cost of a job guarantee depends on a holistic assessment of its impacts. During a US Senate hearing on affordability in June, John Kennedy, a Republican senator for Louisiana, suggested that a job guarantee would cost trillions of dollars and was impossible. When Dr Julie Margetta Morgan, president of the public policy thinktank the Century Foundation, told Kennedy that she supported a federal job guarantee, he replied : “Do you believe in the Easter bunny?”
Sikasɛm ho nimdefoɔ a wɔsua adwuma ho awaregyeɛ ho nsɛm no hunu sɛnea wɔbu ka ne mfasoɔ ho akontaabuo no ɛsono. Max Kasy, sikasɛm ho ɔbenfo wɔ Oxford a wɔasua adwuma awaregyeɛ ho sɔhwɛ bi a wɔyɛɛ no nnansa yi wɔ Austria no, kae sɛ ɛwom sɛ akatua a adwuma awaregyeɛ no tua ma wɔn a wɔwɔ mu no yɛ ka bi deɛ, nanso saa nhyehyɛe yi nso sie sika wɔ akwan pii so.
“Sika a wɔde kora no fi nea ɛkyerɛ sɛ ɛnsɛ sɛ wotua adwumayɛ mu akatua, anaasɛ ebia dɛmdi mu mmoa anaasɛ pɛnshɛn a wɔagye ntɛm akatua. Afei nkurɔfo a wɔreyɛ adwuma tua tow na wɔyɛ asetena mu nhyehyɛe nsiakyibɔ, enti ɛno yɛ sika foforo ma ɔman no. Na afei yɛwɔ anidaso sɛ wɔbɛyɛ biribi a ɛwɔ mfaso ankasa ma ɔmanfo,” ɔkae.
Wɔn a wɔde wɔn ho hyɛɛ adwuma ho bɔhyɛ nhwehwɛmu no mu wɔ Austria no nso nyaa asetena ne adwene mu mfaso. Ɛwom sɛ ebetumi ayɛ den sɛ wɔbɛkyerɛ sika dodow a ɛwɔ apɔwmuden a ɛkɔ anim no mu de, nanso saa nneɛma a wontumi mfa nsa nka no ho hia pa ara, sɛnea Pavlina Tcherneva, a ɔyɛ sikasɛm ho ɔbenfo wɔ Bard College no ka no.
“Sɛ wode adwuma pa ma obi a, ɛsakra ne nkwa koraa,” ɔkae. Sɛ wɔbu yareɛ ho ka a ɛfiri adwuma a enni ahotɔsoɔ ne adwuma a onnya nnɛm bebree ho no ho akontaa a, ɔde kaa ho sɛ, ɛma amammuisɛm no hɔ yɛ fɛ kɛseɛ, na ɔkaa sɛ: “Ɛnyɛ sɛ wobetumi atua ho ka nkutoo, ɛyɛ sikasie.”
Wɔ September mu no, US nnipanimtumfoɔ Ayanna Pressley, Democrat a ofi Massachusetts no, san de congress resolution bi baeɛ a ɛfrɛ sɛ wɔbɛyɛ federal adwuma gyinapɛn, biribi a odii kan de bae wɔ 2021 mu no. Ne nhyehyɛeɛ no bɛyɛ adwuma gyinapɛn a federal na ɛtua ho ka nanso wɔ mpɔtam hɔ na wodi ho dwuma a ɛtua wɔn a wɔaka wɔn ho no akatua bɛyɛ dɔla 25 wɔ dɔnhwere biara, a wɔsesa no bere ne bere mu de kyerɛ asetena mu abrabɔ bo a ɛrekɔ soro no. Nnwuma no bɛfa mmeaeɛ ahorow pii ho, te sɛ ahokyere mu ahoboa, mmoa ne nkɔmmɔpa wɔ abɔdeɛ mu amanehunu akyi, mmofra ne mpanyimfoɔ hwɛ, ne ɔmanfo adwinnade nnwuma a wɔagyina WPA Federal Art Project a agye din no so ayɛ.
Nhyehyɛe foforo bi a aba nnansa yi bɛto AI nkɔmpanyi so tow tẽẽ de abɔ federal adwuma ban. Nhyehyɛe no, a Democratic US ananmusifo Greg Casar a ofi Texas, Valerie Foushee a ofi North Carolina ne Sara Jacobs a ofi California foa so no, bɛto AI nkɔmpanyi akɛse so tow wɔ nea ɛkɔ soro no so: wɔn “tokens” no bo – data nkyekyɛmu a wɔde di dwuma wɔ AI nhyehyɛe mu – anaa sika a wonya fi wɔn AI nneɛma mu.
Sɛ adwumayɛfoɔ a wɔnni adwuma no dodoɔ kɔ soro a, anka towtua no bɛkɔ soro. “AI CEO nom reka wɔ bagua mu sɛ wɔn mfiridwuma betumi ama Amerikafoɔ ɔpepem pii ahwere wɔn nnwuma, na yɛn aban nyɛ hwee de agye nnwuma ne abɔbrɛfoɔ,” saa na Casar kaa wɔ nsɛm a wɔatwerɛ mu.
Wɔ Cleveland, Ohio, kuo bi a ɛnyɛ sika pɛ ho asɛm a wɔfrɛ no Universal Basic Employment (UBE) refi nhwehwɛmu ketewa bi ase a wɔde adwumayɛfoɔ baanum a wɔka lɔre wɔ akwantuo adwumakuo bi mu aka ho. Sɛ́ Devin Cotten, UBE hyɛfoɔ ne CEO, kyerɛ no, sɛ́ anka wɔbɛfiri ase ayɛ nnwuma foforɔ koraa no, dwumadie yi boa adwumayɛfoɔ a wɔwɔ hɔ dada no akatua wɔ ɔkwan bi so a ɛboa adwumayɛfoɔ ne adwumawuranom nyinaa.
Cotten ne ne kuo no pɛɛ sɛ adwumayɛfoɔ no bɛnya deɛ wɔfrɛ no sɛ akatua a ɛma obi yɛ ne ho so—akatua dodoɔ a sɛ obi nya a ɔnni hɔkwan bio sɛ ɔbɛnya ɔman mu mmoa a ɛboa amanfoɔ no mu dodoɔ no ara. Wɔ Cleveland no, na ɛyɛ dɔla 27 ne kakra wɔ dɔnhwere biara mu. UBE pilot no bɛbɔ ka bɛyɛ ɔpepem fa wɔ afe baako mu, na wɔne adwumawuranom no akyekyɛ dɔla 27 no mu. Mprempren drivers no nya bɛyɛ dɔla 15 wɔ dɔnhwere biara mu, enti adwumawura no bɛkora sika so, na adwumayɛfoɔ no nso bɛnya akatua a ɛkɔ soro kɛseɛ.
Dwumadie no nyɛ nea ɛbɛsesa mmoa foforo te sɛ ofie ho tokene no ananmu, Cotten kae. Nanso adwumayɛfo a wonya sika pii sɛ akatua, sen sɛ ebenefit a wɔayi asi nkyɛn no, betumi ama wɔn credit ayɛ yie, ebia wɔbɛfata mortgage na wɔasan ama sika akɔ so akyinkyin wɔ mpɔtam sikasɛm mu, na ɛboa ma mmusuakuw a wodi hia no nya nkwa foforo.
Nhwɛso a ɛte saa no betumi atwetwe amanyɔ mu akyitaafoɔ a wɔdɔɔso aba mpo. “Adwuma yɛ gyinapɛn a amanyɔ afã no nyinaa kyɛ,” Cotten kaeɛ. “Misusuw sɛ ano aduru a yɛde adwuma besi so no ma yetumi yɛ ano aduru a akuw abien nyinaa gye tom.”
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